Predicting overlap between drift gillnet fishing and leatherback turtle habitat in the California Current Ecosystem

Concern over bycatch of protected species has become a key factor in shaping fisheries management decisions. In 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service established an annual closure of a large mesh drift gillnet fishery targeting swordfish from central Oregon to central California between August 15 and November 15 because of concerns of bycatch of endangered leatherback turtles (the Pacific Leatherback Conservation Area, PLCA). The spatio-temporal constraints of the PLCA were developed to encompass nearly all previously observed leatherback turtle bycatch events in the fishery. The PLCA has been effective at reducing bycatch of leatherback turtles but has reduced fishing opportunities. In this study, we examined whether the timing of the current PLCA closure is optimal for leatherback turtle conservation, by developing statistical models of leatherback turtle presence inside the PLCA based on environmental variables. We also examined finer-scale spatiotemporal patterns of potential overlap between the fishery and leatherback turtle foraging habitat using Maxent and Random Forests applied to logbook data and leatherback turtle telemetry data. Our results suggest that the temporal extent of the current static closure period is the shortest and most effective for protecting the turtles while allowing fishing during low bycatch-risk periods. We also found that it is possible to predict foraging habitat of leatherback turtles and fishing effort using environmental variables. Identification of spatial and temporal hotspots of potential overlap between fishing effort and leatherback turtle distribution can form a basis for dynamic management approaches.