Sea turtle population estimates incorporating uncertainty: a new approach applied to wester North Atlantic loggerheads Caretta caretta

Loggerhead sea turtles Caretta caretta have been listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act since 1978, and a change in their listing status to endangered was recently under consideration. Estimates of adult population size are needed to evaluate population status, but include a number of uncertainties. A point estimate of loggerhead population size based on a nest count fails to convey the range of our uncertainty in the estimated number of individuals in a population. We developed distributions of adult female loggerhead subpopulation sizes for 5 subpopulations of the western North Atlantic, and for the western North Atlantic population as a whole. Distributions were derived by re-sampling from available nest counts (2001-2010) and data on breeding interval, survival and clutch frequency, each affecting the extrapolation of nest numbers to adult females. Our best estimate for the western North Atlantic adult female loggerhead population was 38 334 (SD=2287) adult females. Confidence limits on estimates for the individual subpopulations ranged from a high of 45 058 adult females for Peninsular Florida to a low of 258 adult females in the Dry Tortugas. To reduce uncertainty in population estimates, research needs to focus on quantifying breeding interval and clutch frequency, especially in the less-studied subpopulations.