Ecological risks of a data-limited fishery using an ensemble of approaches

Overexploitation is currently the main cause of marine defaunation. Vulnerability to overexploitation varies across populations. Determining which populations are of highest ecological risk from fishing mortality guides management. Because no single approach is optimal across taxonomic groups, a multi-model ensemble of relative risk estimates for a data-poor Pacific Ocean tuna longline fishery was obtained from two semi-quantitative Productivity-Susceptibility Analyses (PSAs) and from a quantitative approach that estimates instantaneous fishing mortality to compare to reference points of yield-per-recruit models. Individual estimates were combined to produce a pooled mean relative risk rank order. The study identified stocks below biological limits for which the contribution from this fishery to cumulative anthropogenic mortality may warrant intervention. Relative risks in descending order were for populations of albatrosses, cetaceans, mesopelagic sharks, rays, marine turtles, epipelagic sharks and teleosts. The fishery’s contribution to cumulative fishing mortality of western central north Pacific Ocean striped marlin warrants a more rigorous assessment to determine absolute risks. The study identified the disparate factors explaining relative risk from an individual fishery versus absolute risk from cumulative anthropogenic mortality sources. Improved risk assessments are possible by addressing identified deficits with PSAs, obtaining information on variables that explain catch and post-capture survival risks that was unavailable for this assessment, improving electronic monitoring data quality and filling gaps in life history traits. Findings support stakeholders to design integrated bycatch management frameworks that mitigate fishing mortality of the most vulnerable taxa and account for multispecies conflicts that result from some bycatch mitigation methods.